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Sunday, January 15, 2017

CB300: Analysis -- Meiers Lake Update

Lots of action overnight in the CB300! While the top teams are all resting in the Meiers Lake checkpoint, let's start sorting out the situation in this dynamic race by taking a look at various teams' rest strategies back in Sourdough.

Allen and Aliy both took 5-hour rests, exactly according to their race plans. Nic Petit blew through Sourdough, taking only 30 minutes there. In sharp contrast, Matt Hall took his full mandatory 6-hour rest plus his start differential.

The 7-hour difference between their rest strategies may have put Nic far ahead on the race course, but not actually ahead in the race.

As I have said many, many times: The only thing that really matters in the CB300 is cumulative run times between checkpoints. Nic's shorter rest put him into Meiers about 6 hours ahead of Matt, but he's actually about a half-hour behind. He is also a few minutes behind Allen and only a few minutes ahead of the next top teams. Trust the math, not your eyes!



It is worth noting that Nic's short rest in Sourdough did not materially slow his pace to Meiers. His run-time of 4:41 is only a few minutes slower than teams which took longer rests. In contrast, Matt's 7-hour rest may have helped his team run at the fastest pace. Looking at the entire list, there's a noticeable correlation between rest times and run times: the longer you rest, the faster your dogs run.

Longer rests early result in less rest later in the race. We'll have to watch how that plays out, especially between Nic and Matt. Allen, Aliy and Ryne are using a middle strategy, taking 5 hours rest at the first checkpoint.

It is still very early in the race, and we all know that anything can happen... Go SPK!

17 comments:

A-town's Becky said...

Unless Nic dropped his tracker, the same can not be said of the next leg of the race.
:-0

ragodfrey@yahoo.com said...

Thanks Mac for the over night up date and explanation, appreciated. Staying close pulling for SPK RED & BLACK. GO - GO - GO SPK!!

Nessmuk said...

Always sound guidance Macgellan...got to trust the math! Its going to be fun watching the strategies play out.

According to the stats Aliy still has her full compliment of 12 Team Mates...hoping that is true and Sissy was able to join the Team on the way to Meiers after a good 5 hour rest in Sourdough...or perhaps the stats were not updated in regards to dog# into Meiers Lake....time will tell. I realize getting info is difficult from the "nooks and crannys" of the Alaskan frontier!

Heck of a race to watch....needless to say I'm not getting much done today!

Margaret said...

WOOF WOOF WOOF!!!

This one is a race for the centuries!!! The best coverage (Macgellan) EVER!!!

City mouse, country mouse and suburban mouse, the three styles described by our Guru:

City Mouse - runs like hell and hopes to catch a bus home...
Country Mouse - runs around collecting nuts and rest them pounces;

Suburban mouse - checks watch, schedules, has paper to lay down on and runs like heck to catch the train.

How about a cheer for the Black Red and R&B - WOOF WOOF WOOF!!!

Lourdes, VT said...

Allen and Aliy are going to win this race big time!!!

Leone said...

Thanks for doing the math. I can keep track of the manditoey rests in the Quest and the Iditarod in my head for the 1/2 dozen or so I watch close, but no way in this race. I hope CB300 get the rest/run sheets straightened out soon. I really don't want to create a spread sheet for this.

Anonymous said...

Kudos to Chris! Doing a great job with the red and black oldsters and youngsters!

Toni Tadolini said...

Thank you for the explanation. This race is particularly confusing! All the best to all of the teams, but especially the SPK teams!

Charlene&Lisa said...

Thanks for keeping us on track, Mac. Let's us know where our Red, Black and Red-and-Black teams really stand. Hope this all sorts out in the end!

Dawn Engler said...

I have always loved reading your analysis Mac. Cuz looking at the screen can make a girl crazy! Thanks

Anonymous said...

Is this spread sheet on the Copper Basin web site, or is it yours?
Thanks for keeping us updated

Go SPK!!!

Ruth said...

Kudos to Macgellen! Many us of rely on your expert analysis. Doing great SP Kennel!

Anonymous said...

Although it is a bit early, I've been getting my SP Kennel wardrobe in shape for the second half of this race - with particular attention to dual "Rally Caps" which should serve for Black Red and R&B super cheers.

http://www.aboutweston.com/SP2016rallycap.jpg

I dare say Cha Cha would not have permitted any poor performance in the starting chute, and as Macgellan knows best, would have not stood for her team being ignored!!! (See "Improving the list" video from Macgellan's video jobs).

Thanks again for all you are doing for us, Macgellan,

Best,

Margaret

Macgellan said...

NOTE: The data tables I'm sharing with you are from my own spreadsheet, derived from data on the CB300 website.

Sunny said...

Macgellan, Thank you so very much for your spreadsheets/tables and your commentary. Your time and work and knowledge help all of us SPK junkies get a much better grasp on what's going on. I'm getting nothing done, either, and thank goodness you've been offering explanations because just looking at the CB300 website and the maps makes me crazy. I'm so psyched for Allen and Aily and Chris. GO SPK!!! Question - if Nic's lack of rest at Sourdough did NOT slow his dogs' pace so far, would it be safe to say it's GOING TO as the race progresses?

Marilyn cozzens said...

Thanks Mac for your expert analysis. SPK is doing great, keep it up. And Ryne is doing well also. Go SPK.

Marilyn cozzens said...

Thanks Mac for your expert analysis. SPK is doing great, keep it up. And Ryne is doing well also. Go SPK.